Cavs with the easiest path to the conference finals. First the depleted Wizards, then either inexperienced Toronto or a thin Nets team. And if they make it to the East finals, they might be lucky enough to face a tired banged up Detroit (or Miami or Bulls). Bulls really farked up and now have to face Miami, then Detroit, and then probably Lebron (or Nets) to get to the Finals. HIGHLY unlikely.
The 4 v. 5 tilts promising. Utah and Rockettes are pretty even. Should be fun to see Boozer and Chuck Hayes kill each other for rebounds. Juwan has to play acceptable D, or Boozer will go off (Expect Hayes to scrap his way into foul trouble). And how does Yao deal with Okur's 3 point shooting? Yao on Boozer, and a PF on Okur? Tmac needs this series to boost his career. Can start by taking better shots (he shot only around 42% on the season). A big op for Deron Williams, as Houston doesn't have much at PG.
Heat v. Bulls should be fun, but Ben Wallace has trouble with Shaq. And the Diesel is rested.
Other good subplots: Vince in Canada; Nellieball v. Mavs. Pietrus and Biedrins should be able to bother Dirk. Devin Harris has his work cut out for him versus Baron and Monta. I expect Monta Ellis to light it up at least one game. The Warriors just might come out and play. Otoh, I think Denver and Karl will go belly up against the Spurs.
Lastly, if Atlanta doesn't win one of the first 3 lotto spots, their pick will revert to Phoenix. Generally only one team outside the 3 worst records moves up. Likely that the Hawks will be giving the Suns the #5 pick. Hawks will have something like a 12% representation, for each of three drawings.
* no research was harmed in making this post
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3 comments:
Bo,
This may be the year TMac is traded as well. I wouldn't give up too many youth but he would be intriguing in MSG.
JVG likes worker bees and has a soft spot for Francis as well (Rose, Francis, and Frye???).
One of the papers also talked about Phoenix needing to resign the Matrix. They also have draft picks galore this year. They'll have to jettison something. If it's the Matrix they won't want lots of bodies back because of the picks. They might ask for Francis in a sign and trade and then just release him but I'm guessing Frye, Balkman, Crawford would all be part of that discussion as well.
TMac had a good year and kept them winning when Yao went down. Houston won't be trading him. Houston needs a PG and PF. Right now they have reasonable platoons at those positions. Adding a solid PG would make Yao and Tmac more effective.
I'm not sure what's up on the Marion front. He has 2 years left at Max $$$, but can opt out. Maybe he doesn't have an opt out next year. But I don't see why Phoenix needs to worry. He's running max money for the next two years whether he opts out or they sign him to an extension. Marion will be 29 next month, and stays healthy. Could always be traded in a few years.
If Suns are truly worried about a small amount of Lux Tax, they would be better served moving Diaw, whose $9M flat contract commences next season. But if you look at it, their salary structure is very reasonable. the 3 all-stars make BIG money, Diaw kicks in a hefty raise next year, KT is overpaid but just for one more year. Everyone else is MLE or lower, with Barbosa and Bell underpaid. The only long and worrisome contract is Marcus Banks, who at $4M is tradeable.
... And they might be adding a #5 or #6 pick courtesy of the Atlanta Chickenhawks. With only 10 contracts next season, they are in a a perfect position to add 3 draft choices (the maybe from the Hawks, their own late first rounder and a 2nd).
The only mistake was going after Banks and not drafting Rondo last year.
If they are deathly afraid of $8M (or so) in Lux Tax, it might be possible to trade Diaw before his new contract kicks in. He's currently only at $2M which could get a promising 1st or 2nd year player. IThat would save them $7M and place them around the Tax threshold. I'm not quite sure when next year's contract amount kicks in. Probably not until the July 31 trading moratorium.
Oh, my only thought with TMac is that he has value, he's getting on, and if they sputter in the playoffs something will change.
As for Phoenix, some article mentioned Marion opting out - maybe Isola or Berman's blog. With some teams it is not luxury tax but profit or paying customers that drives personnel moves. Phoenix is a very smart franchise so it will be interesting to see how they deal with Marion.
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