Keeping Cool

On another blog, Chip Stern posted a link to a Draft Express analysis of draft statistics worth studying and annotating.

The article statistically and indirectly explains why trading David Lee is a bad idea.

The meat of the argument might assert that Lee has already established himself as a top notch sixth man in a position where wash-outs far outnumber players who stick around. Lee is still on the upside ramp to being in the league five years at which point his trajectory is heading toward either an all-star or solid-starter rating. add to that the fact that he plays the game intelligently and you have a player who you don't trade for a pocketful of potential.

The article also explains why some GMs are confused about Westbrook and Alexander moving into the top tier of potential draftees. The answer of course is that the risk associated at picks Six through fifteen are largely dictated by drafting intelligently. A smart GM at fifteen can get the same chance of success that a GM gets randomly at six or seven. A few weeks ago, both Alexander and Westbrook were rated as players to be considered in the teens.

But as more GMs get hip to the way things work, they realized that success in the NBA is not a matter of draft pecking order in this 6 -15 zone as it is about identifying the right talent among a group of peer athletes. Westbrook and Alexander moved up not because they're more likely to be stars but because they are more likely to succeed for the teams picking them. Their work ethic and character trump the players more likely to be head cases.

GMs who rate players on strict physical endurance metrics fail to understand this simple but obvious fact.

However, I do disagree with the Draft Express analysis when it asserts that drafting big men is a dramatically higher risk than front-court personnel. First, comparing the success rate of two positions versus three introduces a fudge factor that is strictly statistical noise.

But more importantly, big men - even those who struggle - have higher trade values generally speaking than guards and swingmen of a similar caliber.

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The most important conclusion for the Knicks however might be that looking to the draft for instant relief is a fool's errand. The reason I like a guy like Westbrook is chemistry not raw talent. D'Antoni plays a game where defense is not an organized methodology. The players on the floor need to innately play defense in a highly dynamic game. Westbrook simply owns a profile that adds value with D'Antoni coaching. Other teams drafting early might have much better options depending on their teams and game styles.

For the same reason, Alexander is intriguing. Under D'Antoni, this is a kid who has yet to define his game. Considering the existing high-flying acrobatics, Alexander could become a very, very entertaining player quickly.

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The way I see it, the Knicks should pursue a starting point guard via trade or resign themselves to Marbury. Based on the Draft Express article, pursuing a high draft pick from the last four years who is available would yield a 2011-playoff ready talent.

Hinrich, Barbosa, Crittenton, Conley, Douby, and Ridnour are high draft picks from recent years who still have a few years left to find their NBA legs as PGs. The Knicks should take a serious look at any or all of them in draft night trade talks. they come with their early year dues paid.

And Jay Williams, Dujuan Wagner, and Reses Gaines might be worth a summer league look as back-ups with a potential to surprise.