The Melo Drama - Who Cuts Bait First? Trading Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony signed back on with the Knicks largely out of loyalty.  I say this because its the most believable of the explanations that have been floated around.  But it remains a bit of a mystery as to how Phil Jackson sees the resigning.
At the end of last season he sounded ambivalent about resigning Anthony.  Some attributed this to Jackson playing mind games - being a Zen master who could get Anthony to resign on Jackson's terms.
At the end of the day Anthony did resign and Jackson welcomed him back.  But what does all of this really mean for the Knicks?  In today's NBA, a contending team needs at least one and usually more than one high-performing star to anchor a team.  The fear was that if the Knicks lost Anthony it might be a long time before they found even that replacement part.  So in order to win, Jackson needed at least to sign Anthony and he succeeded in doing that.  But what does the mirrored Faustian bargain entail?

In signing Anthony the bargain from Jackson's perspective had to include the critical idea that the Knicks could significantly complete within a good-health-high-performance threshold - say two years - a reasonable window of opportunity.  Banking on Anthony being able to perform in peak career condition AND in good health after that becomes a speculative exercise that's tricky given his chances to win a ring diminish.
For Anthony, he must have trusted both Jackson and Fish enough to feel that the existing team would be reformulated to win sooner rather than three or four years down the road when Anthony's ability to control his chances at a ring.  After all, given his salary, age, and stature, few other contending teams will be looking to take on all that personal and fiscal baggage.

All of that brings us to today.

The Knicks hold a first-round pick in this years NBA draft.  And they cannot trade that pick before its made.  This leads many to speculate based on their early record that the intention is to 'tank' for the season in the hopes of landing a talent in the draft.  Yet, as we know, the window to win with Melo is a short one.  Gambling on getting a significant talent who can contribute in almost immediate fashion is the longest of shots.  It simply doesn't fit with winning soon.  And while the Knicks are rebuilding parts of the roster, Melo, Fish,  and Jackson must agree that this season's playoff eligibility is critical for all of them.

In order to make the playoffs, the Knicks will need healthy as well as dependable contributors. While the Knicks can boast of depth by numbers, their starting and secondary units are average at best and largely untested over time.  Bargnani, Calderon, Jason Smith, Shumpert, Larkin, STAT, and others have spent significant time in suits in the recent past.  And Melo is once again banging with the PFs of the league. The deep bench is talented but young and raw.
This all suggests the making of a perfect storm of disappointment.  Injuries to date show a 3 and 8 record.  Two or three of those losses could have flipped in the Knicks favor instead so the playoffs are not out of the question but they are by no means a lock either.  The Knicks would have to win every one of those close contests to succeed.

If the Knicks are to ensure a better chance at making the playoffs Jackson will need to infuse the roster with a boost in talent that preferably includes a player or two who play both sides of the ball.
The record of the next few weeks which includes a particularly tough stretch of contests will likely dictate how quickly Jackson will have to act to save any playoff hopes for the year. And, quite frankly, he will be in a hot seat to deliver.

If the Knicks fail to improve the roster and they miss the playoffs limping into the summer months with cap space money in hand but looking like sad sacks their chances of attracting a high-profile talent is non-existent.  Joining Melo and a skeleton crew is not a selling point.

And if no high-profile signings are made, what becomes of Melo?  He can't bring a ring to NY alone. Likewise, Jackson, frustrated in the free agent market may need to trade Melo to get back on track to building a winner somewhere further down the line.  The fate of Melo's tenure on the Knicks is curiously tightly coupled to the progress that this year's team makes and that progress will be strictly measured in wins and losses and not good intentions.

For Jackson, ensuring that the Knicks has a roster who can seize the opportunities to win is the challenge.  Currently, Fish will need to squeeze every ounce of talent and coaching skill to make the playoffs.  It seems an upgrade in talent just about everywhere and anywhere is required.  December 15 is approaching fast and the Knicks record on that date will be a good barometer as to how drastic that talent upgrade will need to be to first, make the playoffs, and second, march into the summer free agent season with enough of a compelling core of talent to convince someone who can team with Anthony to join him in pursuit of a ring.

Knicks Beat Denver Nuggets, 109 - 93

This was a game we should  have won and we did which is not to say that there weren't moments where it could have gotten ugly.  The win snapped a seven game losing streak.  The Knicks played without Shumpert who is still healing from a hip contusion.

Melo had a terrific game as did Sam.  But the star of the game was JR Smith who scored 28 (the same as Melo) and added steals, assists, and great defensive play throughout the game.  The Knicks also executed the rudimentary Triangle offense at will and seamlessly throughout the game.  The defense was outstanding.

The third quarter featured a micro-meltdown in the Nuggets making up 15 or more points to cut the lead to 9 points or so.

The starting unit came back in the fourth to squash that Nuggets rally.

Knicks Lose to Jazz 102 - 100

A back-to-back exciting game with a similar heart-breaking result. With the score tied at 100 and just 2 seconds left on the clock Trey Burke makes a shot from the corner to win the game for Utah.

Carmelo Anthony played a monster game, Pablo Prigioni and JR Smith both had exceptional stretches to keep the Knicks in it.

Early in the game, Iman Shumpert went down with a hip injury that seemed to sap the energy out of the reeling Knicks team.  Once Tim Hardaway, Jr sat down after the very cold start the Knicks clawed their way back into the game after going down by double-digits.

Travis Wear and Cole Aldrich got floor time and both played respectably. wear seems to stabilize the Triangle more than any other player on the team and oddly that opens up the game for the rest of the team. Cleanthony Early also got spot minutes that were put to good use.

The defense was at critical times in the game, ferociously good.

A very tough loss.

Orlando Beats Knicks 97 - 95

Triangle or not, this game should have been a win for the Knicks if for no other reason than the fact that Orlando is an even younger team in rebuild mode.

The Knicks continue to be plagued by defensive lapses, turnovers, missed free throws, and excessive and disproportionate foul calls.  Yet given all of this the Knicks finally won a third quarter convincingly to only let it slip away in the fourth.

Losses like this put enormous pressure on Knicks administrators and coaches to "do something". Angry expensive-ticket holders and resale profiteers start to rattle the cage loudly.

While this game certainly should have been a win, it isn't really that surprising that it was a loss.

Another blog reports, "On Wednesday, Fisher was asked about investing so much time and energy in players who may not be here for long.

“To assume anything is not very smart at all,” Fisher said. “Guys that you assume will be here for a long time may not. Guys that you think won’t be here could be here forever. So it’s really only my job to focus on the here and now.”"

In a previous post, I asked the same question and the Orlando game demonstrates the confusion. Cole Aldrich, once again DNP - puzzling to say the least. Stoudemire did but was mercifully not involved in the fourth quarter battle.

And Fisher's five on the floor combinations were actually better assembled chemistry-wise.

Yet Fisher's answer to the aforementioned question is troubling for a number of reasons.  First, is he implying that there are no takers for certain Knicks who have larger salaries and therefore he's pressured to give minutes to?  If the answer is that we are "stuck" with what we have then will Jackson advocate to Dolan that they swallow salary and cut  a Stoudamire or Bargnani to make room for players more likely to develop a lasting impact?  Or are fans also "stuck".

Another possibility is that the Knicks, rather than building a new core and structure are also in the rehabilitation business.  For example "teaching" Stoudamire to play defense.  This is no doubt an admirable notion but is it practical to invest that kind of (dubious) effort into an aging star whose heart and mind are honorable but whose skills can no longer be counted on for the journey ahead?

It seems to me that New York Knicks fans have more patience in rooting for young, flawed talent than tolerating compounded losing causes (games lost on short-timers).  Fisher, rather than assuming that the here and now represent an eternal patience on the part of Knicks fans might be better serving in using the here and now to bring players roles into focus.  In the case of Amare, Fisher should have a man-to-man talk that includes a reality check that Amare's role is limited and cannot be considered a core component of the year ahead and that STAT should become the best situational player he can be for the remainder of his contract.   The same goes for a few others.

Winning with youth are true wins.  Winning with short-timers is meaningless.

It's Not Just the Triangle, It's the Roster and Team Identity

A discussion many of us have been having on other boards involves the short term viability of teaching the Triangle to talent who are short-timers vs teaching and playing long-term assets.

Presumably short-timers on the roster include Sam, STAT, Bargs, JR, and Prigioni if not because of expiring contract then as a function of age or trade value.  Yet, Fisher often defers minutes to many of these players.

A case in point is the fact that Cole Aldrich's presence on the floor contributes as much if not more than STAT or Delambert do.  While STAT can score, his defense and lack of defensive positioning often give back far more than he brings.  Sam is the opposite, fairly good defensive but no offense. Aldrich actually is as good defensively as Delambert and, given the minutes, could compare decently with STAT.  Cole is also a better complementary player for Melo.

The roster weakness at PG or "Lead Guard" as it's called in the Triangle is another mystery.  With Calderon hurt, Larkin does the best he can filling in and at his best this is adequate.  And Prigioni is also an adequate backup.  In the D-League, Galloway is highly regarded but it seems to me and others that picking up a guy like Gal Mekel who was let go by the Mavs might be a great investment.  Gal is long and athletic which cannot be said for either Larkin or Prig.

Another option at the Lead Guard position might be to let JR Smith handle the chores in particular with Jason Smith at the PF position.  The pick and roll chemistry here is undeniable and JR's passing skills get better every day.

Given this hypothesis, a lineup of Aldrich, JaSmith, Melo, Shumpert (who has become indispensable), and JR might be our best starting and fourth quarter units yet that's not who is getting the play time.

A second unit of Sam, Wear, Early (Early and Wear complement each other well based on summer league play), Hardaway, and Larkin promote minutes for the prospects on the roster.

This leaves STAT, Prigioni, and bargs for spot and situational duty off the bench.

We aren't winning games playing the short-timer, big contract pattern.  I'd like to see Fisher try the longer term concept.

Knicks Lose Again to Hawks, 91 - 85

The Hawks appear to be one of our primary rivals in getting a playoff berth so losing last night is a double kick to the stomach.

I've been trying to stay away from the blame game in analyzing these losses after all we've been advised ad nauseum that the Triangle is difficult to learn and takes a long time to actually master (JR Smith was crucified for mentioning this earlier in the year).

Melo, once again had an off night but this time played long minutes.  Melo continues to NOT GET CALLS which is enigmatic if the Knicks ever expect to contend. Jordan, Kobe, LeBron, and others seem to call their own and all have won doing so.  If Melo's team ever wins it all, he will do so without the wind at his back.

Some questionable calls also seemed to uncannily squelch momentum for the Knicks at critical times but missed free throws, turnovers, and disoriented play contributed mightily to  these losses.

This was a tough one to watch and a tougher one to take.

Knicks Lose to Atlanta, 103 - 96

This loss was tough to take.  The Knicks looked very good for the first half of the game and the triangle seemed to be working beautifully.

In the second half the Knicks fell apart with papercuts.  Turnovers, bad shot selection, and Atlanta's systematic dismantling of the Knicks weakness at PG led to the loss.

Highlights for the Knicks was the Play of SamIAm, STAT, and Shumpert.  Shump is proving that he's an indispensable rotation player.

Knicks Lose to Brooklyn 110 - 99

This was an ugly and difficult game to watch.  Deron Williams progressively outplayed Iman Shumpert who played PG in substitution of injured Pablo Prigioni and Jose Calderon. Knicks were simply outplayed most of the game and never quite executed the triangle to anyone's satisfaction.

Brook Lopez also had a great game for the Nets.  Knicks rebounding and defense left a lot to be desired.

Melo, while putting up a respectable numbers was never really a factor in the game.  STAT, too, had both respectable numbers and brings a winning and warrior energy to the court.  Unfortunately, this rarely translates into superior team chemistry.

Tim Hardaway started and put up some numbers but his defense remains MIA.  Cleanthony Early, OTOH, was played refreshingly well.  Travis Wear played uneven minutes.

Rather than play a blame game, no one expects the Knicks to win many of the early season games. Their 2-3 record is already ahead of some of the more dire predictions that floated before the season ended.  The injury to Calderon has seriously set back the timetable required to assess how good this team can be when healthy.

The Knicks are and will continue to be a work in progress and hard-to-watch as the Brooklyn game was, I'm expecting a very competitive contest against Atlanta tonight. Shane Larkin's game will be a key indicator of how well the Knicks fare.

Knicks Lose to Detroit 98-95

Knicks came back to make this game competitive in the forth quarter only to fall short.
Jason Smith played an excellent game scoring 14 points in the first half when points were hard to come by.

The offensive story of the game is twofold.  First, the Knicks were one shot and done just about all night long.  Monroe and Drummond abused the Knicks front-court.

JR Smith missed the game due to a one game suspension and Melo's offensive was largely MIA.  Missed free throws were key in this loss.

Tim Hardaway led a furious Knicks comeback.  Tim played very well.

Curiously, during the end of game comeback attempt, Melo was seen joking with Tim Hardaway Senior during a break in the action.  Seemed like a curious distraction given the score.

Pablo Prigioni went down with a sprained ankle mid-game - not a good thing.

Knicks Lose to Wizards 98 - 85

The third quarter meltdown is what sealed the Knicks fate last night.  The Wizards got great product from their bench and played with a lot of energy.

For the Knicks, the Smith Brothers - JR and Jason continued to impress as did Shumpert and King Cole who is rapidly claiming the center position minutes as his own.

What is becoming obvious is that Stoudamire lineups are tricky.  Sam and STAT and STAT and Prigioni lineups seem to fare poorly.

Larkin had a respectable but checkered game.  Turnovers all around were costly.  Melo had a respectable but checkered and critically flawed 3rd and fourth quarter.  A late questionable out of bounds call snuffed out a Knicks mimi-run.

Overall though, the Wizards simply outplayed the Knicks on the floor and earned the win.