The Melo Drama - Who Cuts Bait First? Trading Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony signed back on with the Knicks largely out of loyalty.  I say this because its the most believable of the explanations that have been floated around.  But it remains a bit of a mystery as to how Phil Jackson sees the resigning.
At the end of last season he sounded ambivalent about resigning Anthony.  Some attributed this to Jackson playing mind games - being a Zen master who could get Anthony to resign on Jackson's terms.
At the end of the day Anthony did resign and Jackson welcomed him back.  But what does all of this really mean for the Knicks?  In today's NBA, a contending team needs at least one and usually more than one high-performing star to anchor a team.  The fear was that if the Knicks lost Anthony it might be a long time before they found even that replacement part.  So in order to win, Jackson needed at least to sign Anthony and he succeeded in doing that.  But what does the mirrored Faustian bargain entail?

In signing Anthony the bargain from Jackson's perspective had to include the critical idea that the Knicks could significantly complete within a good-health-high-performance threshold - say two years - a reasonable window of opportunity.  Banking on Anthony being able to perform in peak career condition AND in good health after that becomes a speculative exercise that's tricky given his chances to win a ring diminish.
For Anthony, he must have trusted both Jackson and Fish enough to feel that the existing team would be reformulated to win sooner rather than three or four years down the road when Anthony's ability to control his chances at a ring.  After all, given his salary, age, and stature, few other contending teams will be looking to take on all that personal and fiscal baggage.

All of that brings us to today.

The Knicks hold a first-round pick in this years NBA draft.  And they cannot trade that pick before its made.  This leads many to speculate based on their early record that the intention is to 'tank' for the season in the hopes of landing a talent in the draft.  Yet, as we know, the window to win with Melo is a short one.  Gambling on getting a significant talent who can contribute in almost immediate fashion is the longest of shots.  It simply doesn't fit with winning soon.  And while the Knicks are rebuilding parts of the roster, Melo, Fish,  and Jackson must agree that this season's playoff eligibility is critical for all of them.

In order to make the playoffs, the Knicks will need healthy as well as dependable contributors. While the Knicks can boast of depth by numbers, their starting and secondary units are average at best and largely untested over time.  Bargnani, Calderon, Jason Smith, Shumpert, Larkin, STAT, and others have spent significant time in suits in the recent past.  And Melo is once again banging with the PFs of the league. The deep bench is talented but young and raw.
This all suggests the making of a perfect storm of disappointment.  Injuries to date show a 3 and 8 record.  Two or three of those losses could have flipped in the Knicks favor instead so the playoffs are not out of the question but they are by no means a lock either.  The Knicks would have to win every one of those close contests to succeed.

If the Knicks are to ensure a better chance at making the playoffs Jackson will need to infuse the roster with a boost in talent that preferably includes a player or two who play both sides of the ball.
The record of the next few weeks which includes a particularly tough stretch of contests will likely dictate how quickly Jackson will have to act to save any playoff hopes for the year. And, quite frankly, he will be in a hot seat to deliver.

If the Knicks fail to improve the roster and they miss the playoffs limping into the summer months with cap space money in hand but looking like sad sacks their chances of attracting a high-profile talent is non-existent.  Joining Melo and a skeleton crew is not a selling point.

And if no high-profile signings are made, what becomes of Melo?  He can't bring a ring to NY alone. Likewise, Jackson, frustrated in the free agent market may need to trade Melo to get back on track to building a winner somewhere further down the line.  The fate of Melo's tenure on the Knicks is curiously tightly coupled to the progress that this year's team makes and that progress will be strictly measured in wins and losses and not good intentions.

For Jackson, ensuring that the Knicks has a roster who can seize the opportunities to win is the challenge.  Currently, Fish will need to squeeze every ounce of talent and coaching skill to make the playoffs.  It seems an upgrade in talent just about everywhere and anywhere is required.  December 15 is approaching fast and the Knicks record on that date will be a good barometer as to how drastic that talent upgrade will need to be to first, make the playoffs, and second, march into the summer free agent season with enough of a compelling core of talent to convince someone who can team with Anthony to join him in pursuit of a ring.