A Surprising, Disappointing Season

Well, the Knicks surprised fans and critics alike with an unexpected season's record and an all-too-brief playoff exit.

Thibs's track record of improving the team he coaches by 12+ wins was in full bloom .  Thibs inherited a core of players from the previous season had shown a trajectory of at least .500 ball. Thibs was the beneficiary of that year's maturity AND the out-of-the-blue dedication of Julius Randle who many of us had written off.

Compound that with a few fortuitous signings and a decent draft crop and the wind for a better season was at Thibs's back.

I make no claims to be Nostradamus but I have lower expectations for the coming season (others share this sentiment).  This past season's roster was tight and close and in some cases virtually incestuous with Rose and Gibson being long time buddies with Thibs from his Chicago days as coach. Some of that is Thibs but a lot of it was inertia from the previous season's endurance test.

In observing who Thibs favored and who Thibs shaded my guess is that the team sportsmanship that was such a pleasant by-product this season will give way to a darker, more pragmatic set of expectations and recriminations next season.

DRose and Gibson were baked into last year's roster, it was just a matter of moving some movable bodies to make that happen.  They are both likely to be on a short list to once again make the roster in one capacity or another.  Both are on the slippery slope of age.

Payton was a curious signing this last year. He is a recognised buddy of Randle's so that may have been his ticket. I watched many a Knicks game from the perspective of opposing broadcasters and many complimented his defense and competence. Most Knicks fans really have a hard time feeling that way.  By season's end Payton was insufferable as a starter and was benched in the final playoff games, damage done. 

Ntilikina was the odd man out with Thibs.  He needed to be perfect to prove himself every time out.  He didn't stand a chance.  Odds are he won't resign here again given his druthers.  His future may be in Brooklyn.

The departure of Payton (an insider) and Ntilikina (an outsider) will put a severe dent in the quality of teammates in the locker room.  Both appear to be gentlemen and great teammates.  Quickley and Vildoza will fill those left over minutes.

Other insiders include Burks and Bullock.  Both will be resigned if they so choose.  Bullock, the Knicks starting SF started the season slowly and worked his way into becoming an above average SF. I remember scouring rosters looking to upgrade at SF and found no options that were better given the trade options and consequences. Both are likely to entertain suitors who may price them out of the Knicks plans.

Likewise, Nerlens Noel distinguished himself largely due to a Mitchell Robinson injury. So much so that the Knicks FO may have to make a decision on who to keep. MR may be on trade bubble given his upcoming payday and unfortunate injury history.  If MR is retained, Noel is likely gone for money and minutes.    Norvel Pelle gave every indication of being an adequate backup and will probably stick.

Given the potential turnover in friendly bodies, can the roster recreate the comradery the Knicks enjoyed this year? In an age of cancel culture and look-at-me, I suspect not.

And what of Randle's future, sign him  now or later?  If he rolls the dice this year and the team goes South of expectations what happens?  Sign him to a max and does he improve or regress? He'll be under a microscope this coming year.  The only happy ending is improvement.  But is that in the cards?

Which raises the Obie Toppin question.  Keeper? On what grounds? Hard to imagine Knox being retained.

And that leaves Barrett whose game was routinely thwarted by Payton's blind and indifferent PG play. Next year there will be some 'splainin'  to do if that doesn't change.

Chemistry is not easy to create or retain.  Expect progress, prepare for a freefall. 

 

Half-Way through 2021 Season

Fans are back in the Garden.

Well, the Knicks finished just a gae over .500 for the first half which is great progress.

Randle playing at an All-Star level has been the biggest unexpected surprise.

The trade season is in swing with but two weeks left.  While no big moves are anticipated, chances are that there will be some hardening of the roster.  The schedule for the second half of the season is grueling and as well as the Knicks have been playing.

2021 is the year of YouTube channels and podcasts that are increasingly replacing the written word blogs and fan sites for Knicks fan interaction.

The chances of the playoffs are by no means guaranteed. Any sustained losing streak could wipe out the first half of the season's good vibes.

TAJ Bomb

 

Frank vs. Fox

 

2021 Quarter Season Mark

 The Knicks at 8 - 11 is a pleasant surprise thus far.  They've actually blown a couple of games recently, Sacto and Portland but we are hanging in there with better play expected.

I'm expecting some trading to go down soon.  A very crowded and ineffective back court and swing role will make it easy to upgrade almost no matter who comes or goes.  Quickley, while not untouchable, won't be going anywhere unless its a blockbuster.

Bradley Beal is a high speculation trade target.  I'm unconvinced a heavily loaded draft pick trade is worth it.

Fun times.

Taking stock of the first 2021 11 games

I had planned on writing at every tenth game mark and just do a quick temperature reading of the team's progress.

Although the Knicks have lost three games straight badly, the team is actually in far better shape than I had expected for the start of the season.  Their 5-6 record is actually far better than I had anticipated.

The addition of Taj Gibson who replaced Omari Spellman is a welcome and necessary move made early.

The loss of Burks, Obie, and Ntilikina has contributed to the recent Knicks unraveling.  I expect they will return and add value soon.

Immanuel Quickly and Austin Rivers have been great additions to the back court despite some recent (honestly expected) speed bumps.

Randle's play is nothing to complain about at all even when he has a bad stretch. 

Better games are coming.

 

The Ship Be Sinkin' Again

 I expected a slow start to the season in terms of wins and losses.  Maybe 2-8.  But time enough to maybe get it together.  And in thinking so, I'm obviously projecting how I might have viewed the schedule as an opportunity to develop some team chemistry.

Judging from these first two games, Thibs kinda/sorta has that goal in mind but he's implementing that goal by trying to win with patterns of pretty vanilla coaching folklore (play the vets).  This approach is indistinguishable from what we saw from Fizdale a year ago for twenty some games.  Let's acknowledge that march through Knicks fandom hell as Mike Miller's learning sabbatical.  Thibs is making the same mistakes that the ghosts of coaching staffs past have made over and over and over again.

Let's summarize something up front.  The Knicks have been blown out of two difficult to win contests by big margins and by real sketchy play. And yet, like a Groundhog Day dedicated to punishing Knicks fans once again, the large volume of criticism involves not the players on the court - OH, NO - NOT THEM.

No, we are being treated (ONE MORE F'N TIME) to criticism of Frank Ntilikina whose involvement in both games amounted to a few minutes of garbage time.

Now we are again being fed the end-of-shelf-life narrative that Frank has not -cough- "earned" his playing time.  Let's pretend we are all stupid and accept that premise for a moment. Buying into this empirically means  that Payton, DSJ, and a gobbledygook reconfiguration of SGs, SFs, and walk-ons all HAVE EARNED playing time ahead of Frank.  After all, the proof is in the game film.

Right.

The other day, Mavs owner, Mark Cuban was being interviewed and got a cheap shot question from one of the ESPN haters who asked if Cuban slept well after allegedly fleecing the Knicks in the Porzingus trade. Cuban diplomatically deflected the question but went on to make an important point about contemporary basketball fans.  It is that fans follow players more than uniforms these days.

It's true.

And the majority of Knicks fans are Frankie fans.  If there were fans in MSG last night, the buliding walls would be shaking from fans yelling Frank's name.  Don't believe me, ask Fizdale.

There's a cognitive disconnect in how the coaching staffs evaluate Ntilikina.  Mike Miller broke the code.  After Fizdale's miserable run, Miller's Knicks played .500 ball often with Ntilikina being the catalyst.  Frankie fans have seen this movie before.  First he's a bust, then he's in games keeping them winnable, then the Knicks win winnable games, and he finally looks to be on his way... and then a new coach who thinks the Paytons of the world are better.

I for one am sick of this stupid loop.  Trade Frank somewhere where I can enjoy watching him play - F the Knicks.  They'll eventually bumble their way into somebody who is a cookie cutter PG.  I don't even care anymore.

Chip Stern and I had a long conversation before the game about the Knicks bad habit of developing players all year long who leave.  Gone.  The guys who should be developed get free game watching seats.

Payton, Randle, Bullock, DSJ, ...

Why?

The thought occurred to me that in the time of need for a third string Center - could Iggy be a small ball candidate?

The Gotham Knicks Begin

This is the beginning of the Thibodeau era. A new beginning for the Knicks this century.  His roster brims with previously under-achieving lottery picks, two brand new picks, and a handful of previously underachieving young vets.

Last year's roster, under Mike Miller finished the remaining season playing .500 basketball.  It was loaded with PFs.  This year's quad is loaded with PG-ish guards.  Thibs has said he likes that flexibility.

The odds makers have them pegged at 23.5 wins, I think based on the player to player comparisons with other teams.  As I said, our roster is loaded with under-achievers.

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to Thibs whose reputation is to get players to reach their potential and sometimes over-achieve.  I think that's worth a ten game swing up, say 34 wins.

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Thibodeau Speaks Preseason 2020

Thibodeau had a presser tonight that emphasized a lot of information.

That which garnered the most attention given the dismal showing in their second preseason game with Detroit were general, common sense replies to how teams eventually improve their rosters.

"Sometimes you have to do it through trades, free agency. But I think you have to be very aggressive in seeking out those opportunities. They just don’t happen by accident. You have to make them happen."

and 

"You work every day with your player development, try to improve through the draft, you have free agency and you have trades. I think you have to be very aggressive in each area. Sitting back and waiting sometimes is not a good thing."

 

This, of course, generated a flurry of controversy involving Thibs' patience, win-now desire, dedication to developing the team roster, and so on. 

More importantly I think the questions were misguided.  The real question is not 'How do teams and players exchange uniforms' but 'What approach will the Knicks take in remediating their dismal roster and quality of play?'


The latter question speaks to the variety of ways that problems are solved.  Put simply, do the Knicks (FO and coaching) spend their honeymoon period attempting to fix the team failures or do they spend their time building on the team's strengths?

Right now, it sound s as if Thibs and the FO are hell bent on shining turds.  DSJ, Randall, Knox, and a few Kentucky grifters are being prioritized as reclamation projects presumably to up their trade values.  Their trade values being minimal.

Players with much more interesting upsides (Ntilikina, Quickley, Obie, and others) in the meantime
are given the unenviable role of being spare change while these players "figure it out".

My own preference would be that players who have shown growth and promise be played together to create a positive core that the "projects" would have to fit in with to demonstrate that they are redeemable.

 

Westbrook traded for Wall

 Hollinger claims that the next shoe to drop will be a Harden trade.

The clear message Houston has sent to the Nets is that Irving is not an acceptable Harden trade component.  In other words, we (Houston) may have to trade Harden but you (the Nets) can choke on the chemistry.