A Surprising, Disappointing Season

Well, the Knicks surprised fans and critics alike with an unexpected season's record and an all-too-brief playoff exit.

Thibs's track record of improving the team he coaches by 12+ wins was in full bloom .  Thibs inherited a core of players from the previous season had shown a trajectory of at least .500 ball. Thibs was the beneficiary of that year's maturity AND the out-of-the-blue dedication of Julius Randle who many of us had written off.

Compound that with a few fortuitous signings and a decent draft crop and the wind for a better season was at Thibs's back.

I make no claims to be Nostradamus but I have lower expectations for the coming season (others share this sentiment).  This past season's roster was tight and close and in some cases virtually incestuous with Rose and Gibson being long time buddies with Thibs from his Chicago days as coach. Some of that is Thibs but a lot of it was inertia from the previous season's endurance test.

In observing who Thibs favored and who Thibs shaded my guess is that the team sportsmanship that was such a pleasant by-product this season will give way to a darker, more pragmatic set of expectations and recriminations next season.

DRose and Gibson were baked into last year's roster, it was just a matter of moving some movable bodies to make that happen.  They are both likely to be on a short list to once again make the roster in one capacity or another.  Both are on the slippery slope of age.

Payton was a curious signing this last year. He is a recognised buddy of Randle's so that may have been his ticket. I watched many a Knicks game from the perspective of opposing broadcasters and many complimented his defense and competence. Most Knicks fans really have a hard time feeling that way.  By season's end Payton was insufferable as a starter and was benched in the final playoff games, damage done. 

Ntilikina was the odd man out with Thibs.  He needed to be perfect to prove himself every time out.  He didn't stand a chance.  Odds are he won't resign here again given his druthers.  His future may be in Brooklyn.

The departure of Payton (an insider) and Ntilikina (an outsider) will put a severe dent in the quality of teammates in the locker room.  Both appear to be gentlemen and great teammates.  Quickley and Vildoza will fill those left over minutes.

Other insiders include Burks and Bullock.  Both will be resigned if they so choose.  Bullock, the Knicks starting SF started the season slowly and worked his way into becoming an above average SF. I remember scouring rosters looking to upgrade at SF and found no options that were better given the trade options and consequences. Both are likely to entertain suitors who may price them out of the Knicks plans.

Likewise, Nerlens Noel distinguished himself largely due to a Mitchell Robinson injury. So much so that the Knicks FO may have to make a decision on who to keep. MR may be on trade bubble given his upcoming payday and unfortunate injury history.  If MR is retained, Noel is likely gone for money and minutes.    Norvel Pelle gave every indication of being an adequate backup and will probably stick.

Given the potential turnover in friendly bodies, can the roster recreate the comradery the Knicks enjoyed this year? In an age of cancel culture and look-at-me, I suspect not.

And what of Randle's future, sign him  now or later?  If he rolls the dice this year and the team goes South of expectations what happens?  Sign him to a max and does he improve or regress? He'll be under a microscope this coming year.  The only happy ending is improvement.  But is that in the cards?

Which raises the Obie Toppin question.  Keeper? On what grounds? Hard to imagine Knox being retained.

And that leaves Barrett whose game was routinely thwarted by Payton's blind and indifferent PG play. Next year there will be some 'splainin'  to do if that doesn't change.

Chemistry is not easy to create or retain.  Expect progress, prepare for a freefall.