The Ship Be Sinkin' Again

 I expected a slow start to the season in terms of wins and losses.  Maybe 2-8.  But time enough to maybe get it together.  And in thinking so, I'm obviously projecting how I might have viewed the schedule as an opportunity to develop some team chemistry.

Judging from these first two games, Thibs kinda/sorta has that goal in mind but he's implementing that goal by trying to win with patterns of pretty vanilla coaching folklore (play the vets).  This approach is indistinguishable from what we saw from Fizdale a year ago for twenty some games.  Let's acknowledge that march through Knicks fandom hell as Mike Miller's learning sabbatical.  Thibs is making the same mistakes that the ghosts of coaching staffs past have made over and over and over again.

Let's summarize something up front.  The Knicks have been blown out of two difficult to win contests by big margins and by real sketchy play. And yet, like a Groundhog Day dedicated to punishing Knicks fans once again, the large volume of criticism involves not the players on the court - OH, NO - NOT THEM.

No, we are being treated (ONE MORE F'N TIME) to criticism of Frank Ntilikina whose involvement in both games amounted to a few minutes of garbage time.

Now we are again being fed the end-of-shelf-life narrative that Frank has not -cough- "earned" his playing time.  Let's pretend we are all stupid and accept that premise for a moment. Buying into this empirically means  that Payton, DSJ, and a gobbledygook reconfiguration of SGs, SFs, and walk-ons all HAVE EARNED playing time ahead of Frank.  After all, the proof is in the game film.

Right.

The other day, Mavs owner, Mark Cuban was being interviewed and got a cheap shot question from one of the ESPN haters who asked if Cuban slept well after allegedly fleecing the Knicks in the Porzingus trade. Cuban diplomatically deflected the question but went on to make an important point about contemporary basketball fans.  It is that fans follow players more than uniforms these days.

It's true.

And the majority of Knicks fans are Frankie fans.  If there were fans in MSG last night, the buliding walls would be shaking from fans yelling Frank's name.  Don't believe me, ask Fizdale.

There's a cognitive disconnect in how the coaching staffs evaluate Ntilikina.  Mike Miller broke the code.  After Fizdale's miserable run, Miller's Knicks played .500 ball often with Ntilikina being the catalyst.  Frankie fans have seen this movie before.  First he's a bust, then he's in games keeping them winnable, then the Knicks win winnable games, and he finally looks to be on his way... and then a new coach who thinks the Paytons of the world are better.

I for one am sick of this stupid loop.  Trade Frank somewhere where I can enjoy watching him play - F the Knicks.  They'll eventually bumble their way into somebody who is a cookie cutter PG.  I don't even care anymore.

Chip Stern and I had a long conversation before the game about the Knicks bad habit of developing players all year long who leave.  Gone.  The guys who should be developed get free game watching seats.

Payton, Randle, Bullock, DSJ, ...

Why?

The thought occurred to me that in the time of need for a third string Center - could Iggy be a small ball candidate?

The Gotham Knicks Begin

This is the beginning of the Thibodeau era. A new beginning for the Knicks this century.  His roster brims with previously under-achieving lottery picks, two brand new picks, and a handful of previously underachieving young vets.

Last year's roster, under Mike Miller finished the remaining season playing .500 basketball.  It was loaded with PFs.  This year's quad is loaded with PG-ish guards.  Thibs has said he likes that flexibility.

The odds makers have them pegged at 23.5 wins, I think based on the player to player comparisons with other teams.  As I said, our roster is loaded with under-achievers.

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to Thibs whose reputation is to get players to reach their potential and sometimes over-achieve.  I think that's worth a ten game swing up, say 34 wins.

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Thibodeau Speaks Preseason 2020

Thibodeau had a presser tonight that emphasized a lot of information.

That which garnered the most attention given the dismal showing in their second preseason game with Detroit were general, common sense replies to how teams eventually improve their rosters.

"Sometimes you have to do it through trades, free agency. But I think you have to be very aggressive in seeking out those opportunities. They just don’t happen by accident. You have to make them happen."

and 

"You work every day with your player development, try to improve through the draft, you have free agency and you have trades. I think you have to be very aggressive in each area. Sitting back and waiting sometimes is not a good thing."

 

This, of course, generated a flurry of controversy involving Thibs' patience, win-now desire, dedication to developing the team roster, and so on. 

More importantly I think the questions were misguided.  The real question is not 'How do teams and players exchange uniforms' but 'What approach will the Knicks take in remediating their dismal roster and quality of play?'


The latter question speaks to the variety of ways that problems are solved.  Put simply, do the Knicks (FO and coaching) spend their honeymoon period attempting to fix the team failures or do they spend their time building on the team's strengths?

Right now, it sound s as if Thibs and the FO are hell bent on shining turds.  DSJ, Randall, Knox, and a few Kentucky grifters are being prioritized as reclamation projects presumably to up their trade values.  Their trade values being minimal.

Players with much more interesting upsides (Ntilikina, Quickley, Obie, and others) in the meantime
are given the unenviable role of being spare change while these players "figure it out".

My own preference would be that players who have shown growth and promise be played together to create a positive core that the "projects" would have to fit in with to demonstrate that they are redeemable.

 

Westbrook traded for Wall

 Hollinger claims that the next shoe to drop will be a Harden trade.

The clear message Houston has sent to the Nets is that Irving is not an acceptable Harden trade component.  In other words, we (Houston) may have to trade Harden but you (the Nets) can choke on the chemistry.

Dust Still Settling

I wanted to wait until the roster took a final form before attempting to evaluate what the team now looks like.  There may yet be changes but...

Some general observations that we can make are as follows.

The Knicks are serious about development.

The Knicks haven't kicked anyone to the side.  Randall, Payton, Knox, and DSJ are still here.  This a mixed blessing.  Teams that stay together jell together more quickly with time. Somebody will prove their worth and others will follow their bliss elsewhere.

There is a LOT of uncertainty as to who will play and who will sit at the guard and swing positions.

The frontcourt has taken on a much more defined profile.  Robinson and Noel will hold down the center spot and Obi and Randall will lock down the PF position.  This is a very healthy development in terms of potential playing time and confidence.  

IMO, this is an upgrade from last year.  Robinson is that much further down the road and Noel a younger, competent center backup.
Obi will be a beast and seeing less of Randall a good thing.

The Knicks are rich in picks.

The backbreaking truth is that this may be another unwatchable season in hell.  The lure of over-the-horizon talent has become like heroin to every front-office in recent memory.  This team will likely lose a LOT of games.

Time will tell.

Post-2020 Draft Analysis

 In numerous Knicks forum discussions I pointed out that the Knicks were no longer in an initial rebuild process.  I think many pundits like to assume that because the FO had a wholesale turnover that the Knicks were yet again starting from scratch.

That simply isn't true.  The rebuild started with Phil Jackson as one of two concurrent attempts to upright the franchise (the other being Melogate).

Coming into this season, the Knicks were well down the road from those initial rebuild attempts. And in looking at a likely second act, I (and others) noted that it would come as no surprise that the new regime might draft more mature talent in this draft.

And that's what they did. Obi Toppin is a plug-and-play future star.

Immanuel Quickly is almost assuredly an off-the-bench rotation option.

Time will tell but the Knicks drafted well.

I do regret that Devin Vassell could not somehow have been acquired - he being my personal choice at 8.

Misunderstanding Thibs

 The meme that just can't stop circulating is "Thibs wants to WIN NOW!"

Nothing could be further from the truth.  Thibs is a coach who ALWAYS wants to win.  There's nothing special about now.

2020 Draft Day

Knicks now only have 2 picks (27 and 38 to Jazz for 23) - 8 and 23...

Toppin and Terry?  

Westbrook?

Update: Most pundits are predicting Charlotte will get Westbrook but I'm thinking the opposite.

Randall is a better get for Houston who just traded Covington than Batum.

Houston would have no use for an expensive Rozier contract after acquiring Dinwiddie from the Nets. AND  Jordan is sounding as if he wants to draft Ball somehow.  

In fact Randall complements Allen.

I think Westbrook to Charlotte is an exagerrated rumor.

Right now it sounds as if Westbrook may wind up in Charlotte.

Should the Knicks be inquiring about Devonte Graham?  Seems like he's odd man out if Westbrook is a done deal.

I'm Relieved

Chris Paul to the Suns...

likely means no Melo

Thank god.

11/16 11:55 Update: Covington to Portland - that means the Melo return is still possible. 

11/17 morning Update - with the moves the Bucks have made to kep Giannis we don't have to listen to a season's worth of "sign Giannis" fantasy 

Thibodeau's Wild West Show?

The most sensational pre-draft rumor involves Russell Westbrook being traded to the Knicks for at least Julius Randal and a draft pick of unknown Knicks origin.

Westbrook wants out of Houston and there are only two plausible destinations; New York and Charlotte. 

New York offers a short, reasonable contract in Randle and lots of freed-up cap space.

Charlotte's deal almost inevitably involve's Houston assuming at least Terry Rozier's long, expensive contract.

The clock is ticking.  However, this kind of major transaction absolutely affects who gets drafted at 8.

If Westbrook is NY's PG w/Ntilikina as second wave then Haliburton and Vassell provide tempting candidates at 8 and both will be available there.

Secondly, if Westbrook is PG then 8 could well be trade bait for a rotation player to complement him.

The plot thickens.

What We Know Right Now

The Knicks are operating under the following assumptions:

Players currently under contract: Randle, RJ, Ntilikina, Mitchell Robinson, DSJ, Knox and some minor contracts.

Players whose options may or may not be resigned: Portis, Gibson, Ellington, Payton, Bullock

Free agents: Dotson, Harkless

2020 picks: 8, 27, 38

Many future picks.

Potential Cap space: Portis, Gibson, Ellington, Payton, Bullock, Dotson, Harkless

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Trades for expensive players therefore simply require moving any one of the players currently under contract and simply absorb the rest of the incoming contract.

Welcome Elba Immigrants

 I need to get back to maintaining this sucker.  You are all welcome to join.

Meanwhile check out the Strickland podcast with Hahn; https://www.thestrick.land/podcasts/zsj5kw9rgy1ptgnjsf5zv1bo7fig57