Let the Trade Speculation Begin

With a little more than a quarter of the season over and the Dec.15 trade threshold in the rear-view mirror let's take a look at where the Knicks are and where they're going.

So far, all my "happy ending" narratives for this year have been running true. Porzingas has turned out to be a better player than many of us hoped he'd be this year.  And injuries have been scarce across the team roster.  And the depth of the roster looks to ensure that an injury or two will not be crippling.

Phil's roster moves have proven to be prescient.

For the Knicks to be hugging the .500 mark is a very good sign. By the three-quarter mark of the season I expect the team to continue to mature, avoid the few silly losses they've endured recently, and to have an above .500 record at that time.

That brings us to the issue of what the Knicks may be looking forward to. Jackson and Fisher are not tipping their hand and there is speculation that the Knicks are looking to complement their front-court. But before we get to that, let's recalibrate where the Knicks are and to to answer this we have to say that their record was where everyone had hoped they'd be all things being rosy.

But let's be honest here.  The Knicks as a team and as a roster are much better than anyone expected. No one has been a disappointment and pleasant surprises abound. But most encouragingly, Anthony has found his complement in Porzingas and Afflalo - he is no longer the Lone Ranger on the court and they are fully complemented by the rest of the roster.

If you are Phil Jackson or Derek Fisher you can take a deep breath and say things are looking good and the Knicks will likely secure a playoff spot. At the beginning of the season, making the playoffs was a highly contentious speculation, for Jackson it had to be a private make or break expectation.

As he looks to the horizon of the playoffs, it is hard to imagine that he's satisfied with just making the playoffs.  After all, he still has an implicit gentleman's obligation to Anthony to put together a championship team. So the question becomes, will Jackson attempt to shock the world by bulking up this year's model into something of a greater than a one-and-done playoff team?

IMO, expect something just that unexpected.

Months ago, I suggested that Calderon could or would be moved for either Brandon Jennings or Rajon Rondo.  These days the MSM speculation is honing in on Jennings who is expendable in Detroit. However, Sacramento's Catch-22 situation of be damned if you are mediocre and smart if you tank, the tanking will likely kick in soon.  But Rondo is a different post.

Another intriguing possibility is Kevin Martin. JJ Redick another should the Clippers implode before the trading deadline as they have the potential to do.

Calderon has been a pleasant surprise in the early going and providing a yeoman's effort in this early season going.  But because of his age, the likelihood of Calderon improving his play or even being as productive is questionable. moving him to the bench is certainly possible but the bench is expected to bring energy to the floor not just provide placeholder coverage.

Back to a Brandon Jennings trade. many pundits see the possibility as a high-risk, high-reward transaction. So let's examine the high-risk. Coming off an Achilles injury, its possible Jennings either functions as a deep bench substitute or simply wears a suit all season.  This would be little different than Calderon sustaining a long-term injury.  This likely wouldn't threaten making the playoffs but it could weaken the team.

For this reason I think any risky trade scenario involves dual transactions. Due to the maturity of Thomas, Cleanthony Early is very expendable through no fault of his own.  Should Jackson make a high risk trade at the high end of the roster I'd expect a smaller bet be placed at the low end to mitigate any risk taken at the high end.

IMO, moving Early somewhere where he might get some minutes is certainly possible. And Phil does well by his players in terms of putting them in a position to succeed elsewhere.

There's a handful of potential Early trades that could return either a splinter-gathering PG or combo guard who could reinforce the Knicks bench. Elijah Millsap, Jonathan Simmons, Russ Smith, Ian Clark, and Joe Harris all have a profile fitting the bill.

To more wildly speculate, I would not discount the possibility that Houston will have to re-examine their situation and attempt to rebuild on the fly. A Cleanthony Early for Jason Terry deal is not out of the question. terry would be a game-changer acquisition with eyes on a playoff run.

I'm expecting the unexpected.