New York Trade Exceptions - 2015

After the lottery proceedings the other day, Steve Mills mentioned making use of the existing Trade Exceptions the Knicks have been stock-piling.  The pundits, haters, and psycho-babble that followed in the wake of the draft results drowned out Mills' assertion.

It's an important one.  Here's why - lots of teams are strapped for cash going into July's salary negotiations. Many of them have players they'd love to jettison without assuming responsibility for additional salary obligations. For the Knicks who have cap space and an appetite to acquire more picks, here's an opportunity to both improve the roster depth AND add a pick who could work his way onto the roster or become a Westchester prospect.

Let's examine a few potential Trade exception trades.

The Travis Outlaw exception remains a dormant asset from Jackson's initial trading flurry.  It's a small one but might work in two plausible scenarios;

The TO exception for Atlanta's sg John Jenkins and pick # 50 OR for Orlando's sf Mo Harkless and pick #51.

A second small exception is the Pablo Prigioni exception.  The PP exception could plausibly be applied to the acquisition of Phoenix's Reggie Bullock and pick #44.

Two larger exceptions can be reasonably exercised as well though they impact the Knicks cap space a bit more.

The Iman Shumpert exception  could be offered to OKC for Jeremy Lamb and #14.

Finally, the JR Smith trade exception which is much larger could be offered to Minnesota for Chase Budinger and  picks #31 and #36.

ALL of the acquired players are risky acquisitions, some more than others.  Yet no evaluation of the effectiveness of Phil Jackson trades will be complete until these are factored in.

Given the fiscal state of many teams, the Knicks have great opportunity to call their own plays.

Ruminations on Picking #4

At the end of the season, the Knicks suddenly started playing as if a playoff position was at stake.  Critics of those pointless wins were admonished by saying, "the players get paid to play hard" and "oh, the players are playing for their careers" as if these last few games were going to alter career trajectories.

I criticized the winning then and I reiterate the stupidity of it now. There is a time and place for everything. Pyrrhic victories cost us a greater chance at finishing higher and it's a damned shame.

There are no basketball Gods who smiled down on us and said, "Good on you, you played hard and you deserve a better pick." No, instead the Math and statistical probability Gods said, "Don't you assholes understand arithmetic?" Is it any wonder the retired NBA players go broke in less than a decade?

The Statistical Probability Gods gave us pick #4. Let's examine the probabilities and options for the Knicks.

First and foremost we'll still need a center.  The Knicks could swap picks with someone further back in the lottery and reach for Cauley-Stein or Kaminsky.  That's probably there for them but I doubt they do that.

If the pundits are right, the Knicks will draft Emmanuel Mudiay and they'll keep him.  At 6'5", he's got the kind of size that Phil Jackson likes and the kid is still growing - how much more he grows becomes an interesting speculation.  He could improbably become the Lebron James of this draft class and under Phil's tutelage, a Michael Jordan archetype player.

Maybe there are Basketball Gods after all.

Assuming Mudiay is the pick - dominoes fall.  Gallo moves over to the two guard creating the most unique Knicks backcourt since Frazier and Munroe. Gallo is a lock down guard who can shoot - the Knicks defense is that much better and the back court is a force.

Hardaway becomes VERY expendable. Calderon as well. Signing Shved is less imperative but still a very nice option is Hardaway and/or Calderon can be moved. Corey Joseph, Reggie Jackson and the rest are no longer primary targets.

So what do we do about a center? Trading for a second, first-round pick is one possibility.  More likely, the Knicks make a Hail Mary pass at Marc Gasol.  Simultaneously, I think they make a strong move for DeAndre Jordan, a pragmatic and effective druther.  And the Knicks will no longer be competing with LA for their talents.

Greg Monroe is publicly rumored as another target, one that I'm less enthusiastic about. Holdovers Jason Smith and Cole Aldrich are as good as many of the lesser FA options. Robin Lopez may be the Dark Horse candidate.

That leaves room for another FA signing. Aldrich? Butler? Danny Green? DeMarre Carroll? Lots of interesting possibilities.

Will the Knicks Acquire Another 2015 Draft Pick?

It seems that this may be a distinct possibility.  Until we know the draft order, its a recursive argument about which player will get chosen at the top of the draft.

Instead let's consider the possibility that the Knicks can move Calderon or Hardaway for another pick.  There's been some chatter that OKC could fiscally benefit from trading their pick.  Dallas too may be looking to retool a bit after the disastrous Rondo trade.  The Knicks might have an opportunity to grab a second first round pick if any of that is true.

I mention it only because, after watching the combine, both Justin Anderson and Terry Rozier look to be sleepers in that teens range of picks.

Rozier has a Dwayne Wade swagger to his game that's intriguing.  Anderson, a high basketball IQ, potential 3&D complement to Melo